That said, with the Flood of April 19, 2013 in mind, the MNR has been watching the snow melt situation with critical care this year. The lake is as low as we have ever seen it, pulled down at the dam to allow for the influx of water from the Spring freshet.
Brian went down yesterday and set up a monitor system of his own. As he points out:
1- Remember that the average ice out date for Haystack bay on Lake of Bays,
based on the data from the last 110 years is April 23, now going on to April 22
due to a slight warming trend of statistical significance.
2- Water level at my dock was approximately 23.5 inches below summer normal
this 
morning at 6 AM April 11. On Monday, the water was about 28 inches below summer normal, the lowest Brian can recall in 55 years or so.
3-Water level (same dock) is 22.5 inches below summer normal at 6 PM today
so we have a 12 hour rise of about 1 inch.
He points out he had to sort of estimate the "summer normal", so the MNR may disagree a little bit, but the actual change of water level is accurate. His fiendish plan is to check the level morning and night for the next little while to track the changes. We shall see...
We know that many of our neighbours on the Lake read this Blog (and thank them for that!) so we hope to keep you up to date with what is happening out there! It is not all doom and gloom -- the lake level is very low. There is little frost in the ground this year because so much snow fell so early in the winter, so the ground can drink up a lot of the meltwater. And we've had some nice warm wind this week, which has just pulled down the snow almost as we watch...
Meantime, here, in Red, is the MNR flood watch that was issued today.
The Ministry of Natural
Resources - Parry Sound District is advising area residents that a Flood
Watch is in effect within the District.
Residents along rivers
and lakes within the Parry Sound-Muskoka area are advised to keep a close watch
on conditions, regularly check for updated messages and exercise caution around
waterbodies as river flows and water levels continue to rise in the coming
days. A significant potential exists for flooding due to current conditions and
forecasted rainfall.
Residents may wish to
take any further action necessary to secure or protect property in
flood-prone or
vulnerable areas.
Local lakes are still
ice covered which has the potential to impact shoreline infrastructure such as
docks and boathouses as water levels rise and with prevailing winds.
MNR is closely
monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions. Further
updates will be issued
as appropriate.
TECHNICAL
INFORMATION
Description
of Weather System
The current forecast is
calling for up to 45mm or more precipitation Saturday April 12th
through Monday April 14th. The forecast through to next Monday is for daytime
high
temperatures in the
range of 6-13 degrees Celsius with near freezing nighttime
temperatures.
Description
of Current Conditions
The water content within
the existing snow pack throughout local watersheds continues to be
significantly greater than the normal or historical average for early April.
Forecasted temperatures and rainfall will accelerate the melt of the snow pack
but flooding is not expected at this time. It is expected that the
melting of the snow pack in addition to rainfall will significantly increase
the amount of runoff into local waterbodies.
The rate of rise in
water levels and flows is expected to increase through the weekend and into
next week given current conditions.
Well, we're seeing some flood conditions here in Eastern Ontario.
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